Scenario DevelopmentSign in

A guided foresight process

Read four newspapers from ten years out.

Scenario Development turns what you already know about your industry into four plausible futures, each written as a news story you can hand to your board. You work through it alone, at your own pace, guided a step at a time.

Start a sessionAround 3 hours · saved as you go

Finish with four future stories and a downloadable Story Pack.

Scenario matrix
Driver 2
Q2Awaiting story
Q3

Regulator clears the merger nobody expected to survive

Q1Awaiting story
Q4Awaiting story
Driver 1

How the session runs

Each step has to produce something before the next one opens. That is what keeps the futures coherent rather than merely interesting.

  1. 01

    Frame the challenge

    Settle the question your next decade turns on.

  2. 02

    Gather the drivers

    Name the forces that could change the conditions you plan in.

  3. 03

    Map impact and uncertainty

    Find the few drivers that are both consequential and genuinely unpredictable.

  4. 04

    Choose two uncertainties

    Two axes, four futures, each internally consistent.

  5. 05

    Investigate the stories

    Work a tip-off into a news article filed from inside each future.

Ready when you are.

Finish with four future stories and a downloadable Story Pack. Stop whenever you like — everything is saved, and you resume exactly where you left off.

Start a sessionPrivate session · saved as you go